After decades of political pressure, the climate F-word — fossil fuels — finally made its way into the final agreement at COP28 in 2023. But another F-word must not escape the conversation if we are to keep 1.5° within reach: food.
Global agri-food systems are responsible for at least one-third of human-caused global greenhouse emissions. The industrial food system, dominated by monocultures, intensive livestock production, and chemical inputs, cannot exist without fossil fuels. COP30 in Brazil, one of the world’s largest agricultural powerhouses, is a critical opportunity to anchor climate pledges with transitions away from high-emitting industrial agriculture.
Fossil Fuels are Embedded In Every Stage of the Food System
Agribusiness has a track record of shifting responsibility onto the fossil fuel sector, but from farm to fork, the two systems are inextricably linked. Oil, gas, and coal are the lifeblood for farm machinery, fertilizers, food processing, refrigeration, global supply chains, and other agri-food-related activities. Roughly 15% of all fossil fuel energy use today is tied to food systems — and this share is growing, driven in part by the rise of ultra-processed foods.
Agrochemicals are Fossil Fuels in Disguise
As the use of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides rises, the fossil-fuel lock-in begins well before the farm. Producing agrochemicals requires large amounts of fossil gas, coal, or oil — both for feedstock and energy. As other sectors decarbonize, the fossil fuel industry is increasingly turning to petrochemicals — of which agrochemicals account for roughly one-third — as a growth market. Nitrogen fertilizers alone account for 3-5% of global fossil gas use and more than 2 % of global emissions — rivaling commercial aviation.
Agrochemicals Make the Industrial Food System Possible
The direct climate impacts of agrochemicals are significant, but they are only the tip of the iceberg. Agrochemicals have enabled and locked in an agricultural system based on large-scale monocultures and industrial livestock operations, where animals are raised off the land and feed is grown elsewhere. This model drives deforestation, accelerates methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and deepens soil and biodiversity loss — making it fundamentally unsustainable.
Agriculture is the largest human-made source of two greenhouse gases that are much more potent than carbon dioxide: methane and nitrous oxide, driven largely by industrial livestock production and unregulated fertilizer use. The expansion of the agricultural frontier accounts for 70-90% of global deforestation, at least half of it due to the production of just a few commodities for export. On its current trajectory, the food system alone would push the world beyond 1.5°C.
Tweaks Won’t Cut it, Our Food System Needs an Overhaul
COP30 risks being a repeat of what we’ve seen in previous climate talks: industrial agribusiness lobbyists promoting alleged climate solutions — like blue ammonia, precision farming, and controlled-release plastic coatings — that, in reality, only deepen dependence on fossil fuels and chemical inputs.
Blue ammonia is not only expensive and heavily subsidized, it also relies on fossil gas and carbon capture systems that have repeatedly failed to perform. Even if fertilizers could be produced more sustainably, their climate impacts would not disappear. The majority of fertilizer-related emissions occur on the field. And while efficiency technologies may help reduce nitrogen loss, they do not address the core problem: the food system uses too much synthetic fertilizer and pesticide in the first place.
Big Ag Does Not Feed the World
The industrial agricultural industry claims that regulating the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides will cause hunger. But we already produce 1.5 times more food than is needed to feed our global population. Hunger is driven by inequalities and access — not a lack of production. Meanwhile, overreliance on agrochemicals degrades soils and destroys biodiversity, undermining our ability to grow food in the future. And their climate impacts deepen poverty and inequalities, the very conditions that drive hunger.
Beyond the Climate Threat
Agrochemicals don’t just threaten the climate; the industrial food system is the single largest driver of planetary boundary overshoot. The disruption of nitrogen and phosphorus cycles — driven largely by the overuse of fertilizers — is causing cascading harm to ecosystems and human health.
Real solutions exist: COP30 Must Help Scale Them
To keep 1.5°C within reach, climate negotiators must recognize food systems — and the agrochemical dependence that underpins them — as central to the climate agenda.
More than one hundred organisations, including CIEL, have signed a joint letter calling for climate ambition to be grounded in cutting agricultural emissions and transitioning to agroecology. Brazilian civil society is also convening a People’s Summit to advance an alternative vision for agriculture: one that centers ecologically-minded smallholder farmers and their power to nourish Brazil’s population.
To start, this means:
- Explicitly acknowledging the role of agrochemicals and industrial agriculture in transgressing the planet’s safe limits, including the climate
- Committing to Nationally Determined Contributions that reduce the use of agrochemicals and move towards agroecology
- Rejecting false solutions — including blue ammonia, minor efficiency tweaks, coating in microplastics, and biofuel expansion — that lock in fossil fuel dependence and delay real change
- Supporting farmers with financial and technical resources to adopt agroecological and low-input practices that are resilient, productive, and climate-aligned
- Introducing policies, especially in high-income countries, that support a dietary shift toward healthy, ecological, plant-based foods and that implement binding agricultural emissions reduction targets
Transforming food systems is not a peripheral issue — it is a core condition for delivering the Paris Agreement. COP30 is the time to act.
